BN: finance
Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts

22 Aug 2020

Fed Nixes Narrow Bank - Barokong

A narrow bank would be a great thing. A narrow bank takes deposits, and invests 100% of the money in interest-paying reserves at the Fed. (The Fed, in turn, mostly invests in US treasuries and agency securities.)

A narrow bank cannot fail*. It cannot lose money on its assets. A narrow bank cannot suffer a run. If people want their money back, they can all have it, instantly. A narrow bank needs essentially no asset risk regulation, stress tests, or anything else.

A narrow bank fills an important niche. Individuals can have federally insured bank accounts which are (mostly) safe. But large businesses need to handle cash way above the limits of deposit insurance. For that reason, they invest in repurchase agreements, short-term commercial paper, and all the other forms of short term debt that blew up in the 2008 financial crisis. These are safer than bank accounts, but, as we saw, not completely safe. A narrow bank is completely safe. And with the option of a narrow bank, the only reason for companies to invest in these other arrangements is to try to harvest a little more interest. Regulators can feel a lot more confident shutting down run-prone alternatives if a narrow bank is widely available.

The most common objection to equity-financed banking is that people and businesses need deposits. Well, narrow banks provide those deposits, and can do so in nearly unlimited amount. Narrow banking, providing completely safe deposits, opens the door to equity-financed banking, which can invest in risky assets and also be immune from financial crises.

Why not just start a a money market fund that invests in treasuries? Since deposit -> narrow bank -> Fed -> Treasuries, why not just deposit -> money market fund -> treasuries, and cut out the middle person? Well, a narrow bank is really a bank. A money market fund cannot access the full range of financial services that a bank can offer. If you're a business and you want to wire money to Germany this afternoon, you need a bank.

Suppose someone started a narrow bank. How would the Fed react? You would think they would welcome it with open arms. Not so.

TNB, for "The Narrow Bank" just tried, and the Fed is resisting in every possible way. TNB just filed a complaint against the New York Fed in District Court, which makes great reading. (The complaint is publicly available here, but behind a paywall, so I posted it on my webpage here.) Excerpts:

2. “TNB” stands for “the narrow bank”, and its business model is indeed narrow. TNB’s sole business will be to accept deposits only from the most financially secure institutions, and to place those deposits into TNB’s Master Account at the FRBNY, thus permitting depositors to earn higher rates of interest than are currently available to nonfinancial companies and consumers for such a safe, liquid form of deposit.
3. TNB’s board of directors and management have devoted more than two years and substantial resources to preparing to open their business, including undergoing a rigorous review by the State of Connecticut Department of Banking (“CTDOB”). The CTDOB has now granted TNB a temporary Certificate of Authority (“CoA”) and is fully prepared to permit TNB to operate on a permanent basis.
4. However, to carry out its business—indeed, to function at all—TNB needs access to the Federal Reserve payments system.
5. In August 2017, therefore, TNB began the routine administrative process to open a Master Account with the FRBNY. Typically, the application procedure involves completing a one-page form agreement, followed by a brief wait of no more than one week. Indeed, the form agreement itself states that “[p]rocessing may take 5-7 business days” and that the applicant should “contact the Federal Reserve Bank to confirm the date that the master account will be established.”
6. This treatment is consistent with the governing statutory framework. Concerned by preferential access to Federal Reserve services by large financial institutions, Congress passed the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (the “Act”). Under the applicable provision of the Act, 12 U.S.C. § 248a(c)(2), all FRBNY services “shall be available” on an equal, non-discriminatory basis to any qualified depository institution that, like TNB, is in the business of receiving deposits other than trust funds.
7. TNB did not receive the standard treatment mandated by the governing law. Despite Connecticut’s approval of TNB—as TNB’s lawful chartering authority—and the language of the governing statute, the FRBNY undertook its own protracted internal review of TNB. TNB fully cooperated with that review, which ultimately concluded in TNB’s favor. At the same time, the FRBNY also apparently referred the matter to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the “Board”) in Washington, D.C.
8. In December 2017, TNB was informed orally by an FRBNY official that approval would be forthcoming—only to be called back later by the same official and told that the Board had countermanded that direction, based on alleged “policy concerns.”
9. TNB’s principals thereafter met with staff representatives of the Board, as well as the President of the FRBNY, to explain that there was no lawful basis to reject TNB’s application for a Master Account. On information and belief, the FRBNY and its leadership agreed with TNB and were prepared to open a Master Account.
10. Though TNB had satisfactorily completed the FRBNY’s diligence review, the Board continued to thwart any action by the FRBNY to open TNB’s Master Account, reportedly at the specific direction of the Board’s Chairman.
11. Having delayed the process for nearly one year—effectively preventing TNB from doing business—the FRBNY has repeatedly refused either to permit TNB to open a Master Account or to state that the FRBNY will ultimately do so.
12. The FRBNY’s conduct is in open defiance of the statutory framework, its own prior positions, and judicial authority. See Fourth Corner Credit Union v. Fed. Reserve Bank of Kan. City, 861 F.3d 1052, 1071 (10th Cir. 2017) (“The plain text of § 248a(c)(2) indicates that nonmember depository institutions are entitled to purchase services from Federal Reserve Banks. To purchase these services, a master account is required. Thus, nonmember depository institutions . . . are entitled to master accounts.”) (Bacharach, J.) (emphasis added).
13. Further, the FRBNY’s actions, especially in the context of other recent conduct by the Board,1 have the effect of discriminating against small, innovative companies like TNB and privileging established, too-big-to-fail institutions—the very dynamic that led Congress to pass the Act in the first place.
14. TNB therefore brings this action for a prompt declaratory judgment that it is entitled to a Master Account.
Why does the Fed object?

The Fed may worry about controlling the size of its balance sheet -- how many reserves banks have at the Fed, and how many treasuries the Fed correspondingly buys. If narrow banks get really popular, the Fed might have to buy more treasuries to meet the need. Alternatively, the Fed might have to discriminate, paying narrow banks less interest than it pays "real" banks, in order to keep down the size of the narrow banking industry. It would then face hard questions about why it is discriminating and paying traditional banks more than it pays everyone else. (It's already a bit of a puzzle that it often pays interest on reserves larger than what banks can get anywhere else, even treasuries.)

But why does the size of the balance sheet matter? Why does it matter whether people hold treasuries directly, hold them via a money market fund, or hold them via a narrow bank, which holds reserves at the Fed, which holds treasuries?

"Money" is no longer money. When the Fed pays interest on huge amounts of excess reserves, the size of the balance sheet no longer matters, especially in this regard. If people want to hold more treasuries indirectly through a narrow bank and the Fed, and correspondingly less directly, why should that have any stimulative or depressing effect at all? Even if you do think QE purchases -- supply-driven changes in the balance sheet -- matter, it is not at all clear why demand-driven changes should matter.

The Fed already allows a "reverse repo program,"  in which 160 institutions such as money market funds to hold reserves. It currently pays those 20 basis points (0.2%) less than it pays banks, to discourage participation.

The second argument, made during the discussion about reverse repos, is that narrow banks are a threat to financial stability, not a guarantor of it as I have described, because people will run to narrow banks away from repo and other short term financing in times of stress.

This is, in my view, completely misguided. Again, narrow banks are just an indirect way of holding treasuries. There is nothing now stopping people from "running" to treasuries directly, which is exactly what they did in the financial crisis.

Furthermore, the Fed does not, in a crisis, seek to force people to hold illiquid assets having a run. The Fed pours liquid assets into the system like Niagara falls, and buys illiquid assets from them, all in massive quantities.

Moreover, the whole point of the narrow bank is that large businesses don't hold fragile run-prone short term assets in the first place. By paying interest on reserves, and allowing more and more people to enjoy run-proof government money, there is less gasoline in the financial system to begin with. If the Fed is worried about financial crises, it ought to encourage narrow banks and give others a gold star for using them rather than shadier short-term assets in the first place.

The emptiness of both arguments is easy to see from this: Chase and Citi are narrow banks -- married to investment banks. Both take deposits, and invest them as interest paying reserves at the Fed. Right now there are more reserves than checking accounts in the banking system as a whole. If there were some threat to monetary policy or financial stability from banks being able to take deposits and funnel them in to reserves, we'd be there now. The only difference is that if Chase and City lose money on their risky investments, they drag down depositors too and the government bails out the depositors. The narrow banks are not separated from the investment banks in bankruptcy. A true narrow bank just separates these functions.

Shadier speculations are natural as well.

Banks are making a tidy profit on their current activities. JP Morgan Chase pays me 1 basis point on my deposits, as it has forever, and now earns 1.95% on excess reserves. The "pass through" from interest earned to interest paid to depositors is very slow. This is a clear sign of lack of competition in the banking system. The Fed's reverse RP program was put in place, in part, to pressure banks to act a bit more competitively, by allowing an almost-narrow bank to take investor money and put it in reserves. The Fed is now scaling that program back.

That the Fed, which is a banker's bank, protects the profits of the big banks system against competition, would be the natural public-choice speculation.

Perhaps also my vision of a run-proof essentially unregulated banking system isn't as attractive to the Fed as it should be. If deposits are handled by narrow banks, which don't need asset risk regulation, and risky investment is handled by equity-financed banks, which don't need asset risk regulation, a lot of regulators and "macro-prudential" policy makers, who want to use regulatory tools to control the economy, are going to be out of work.

To be clear, I have no evidence for either motivation. But the facts fit, and large institutions are not always self-aware of their motivations.

Whatever the reason, it is sad to see the Fed handed such an obvious boon to financial stability and efficiency, and to slow walk it to regulatory death, despite, apparently, clear legal rights of the Narrow Bank to serve its customers.

*Well, almost. For the Fed to fail, there would have to be a large-scale US default on treasury debt. Even so, Congress could exempt the Fed by recapitalizing it, making good its losses. So Congress would have to decide that it won't even recapitalize the Fed, so that reserves also default. If there is one bank that really is too big to fail, it's the Fed, as its failure would bring down the entire monetary system. Literally, all of the ATMs and credit card machines go dark. This is a pretty improbable event.

Update: Endi below asks "Why do you say that with the existence of narrow banks, equity-financed banks would be immune from a financial crisis?" See "A Blueprint for Effective Financial Reform", "Equity-financed banking and a run-free financial system," "Toward a run-free financial system",  All here.

Update 2: Matt Levine at Bloomberg has excellent coverage. Michael Derby at WSJ too. As Matt and a commenter below explain,  I got ahead of myself on TNB. This particular company is not planning to offer banking services or retail deposits. They won't even wire money for you. The reason: if they were to do so, they would face lots of anti-money-laundering regulations. This particular business is focused on giving money market funds and other large institutions access to the 1.95% that the Fed pays on reserves, which is more than the 1.75% that money market funds can get via reverse repo at the same Fed, or (paradoxically) the rate that short term treasuries have been offering lately.

Update 3: an excellent WSJ editorial. The Fed remains silent. My forecast: The Fed will remain silent, fight the lawsuit with obfuscation and delay.  It can surely let this rot in the courts for a decade or more. By that time the TNB folks will be out of money and have to give up, and any potential copycats will get the message.

13 Aug 2020

Asset Pricing Mooc, Resurrected - Barokong

The videos, readings, slides/whiteboards and notes are all now here on my webpage.  If you just want the lecture videos, they are all on Youtube, Part 1 here and Part 2 here.

These materials are also hosted in a somewhat prettier manner on the University of Chicago's Canvas platform. You may or may not have  access to that. It may become open to the public at some point.

I'm working on the quizzes, problems, and exams, and also on finding a new host so you can have problems graded and get a certificate. For now, however, I hope these materials are useful as self-study, and as assignments for in-person classes. I found that sending students to watch the videos and then having a more discussion oriented class worked well.

What happened? Coursera moved to a new platform. The new platform is not backward-compatible, did not support several features I used from the old platform, and some of the new platform features don't work as advertised either. Neither the excellent team at U of C, nor Coursera's staff, could move the class to the new platform. And Coursera would not keep the old platform open. So, months of work are consigned to the dustbin of software "upgrades," at least for now.

Obviously, if you are thinking of doing an online course, I do not recommend that you work with Coursera. And make sure to write strong language about keeping your course working in the contract.

Update: The latest version of the class is here

9 Aug 2020

Volume and Information - Barokong

This is a little essay on the puzzle of volume, disguised as comments on a paper by Fernando Alvarez and Andy Atkeson, presented at theBecker-Friedman Institute Conference in Honor of Robert E. Lucas Jr. (The rest of the conference is really interesting too, but I likely will not have time to blog a summary.)

Like many others, I have been very influenced by Bob, and I owe him a lot personally as well. Bob pretty much handed me the basic idea for a "Random walk in GNP" on a silver platter. Bob'sreview of a report to the OECD, which he might rather forget, inspired the Grumpy Economist many years later. Bob is a straight-arrow icon for how academics should conduct themselves.

On Volume:  (alsopdf here)

Volume and Information. Comments on “Random Risk Aversion and Liquidity: a Model of Asset Pricing and Trade Volumes” by Fernando Alvarez and Andy Atkeson

John H. Cochrane

October 7 2016

This is a great economics paper in the Bob Lucas tradition: Preferences, technology, equilibrium, predictions, facts, welfare calculations, full stop.

However, it’s not yet a great finance paper. It’s missing the motivation, vision, methodological speculation, calls for future research — in short, all the BS — that Bob tells you to leave out. I’ll follow my comparative advantage, then, to help to fill this yawning gap.

Volume is The Great Unsolved Problem of Financial Economics. In our canonical models — such as Bob’s classic consumption-based model — trading volume is essentially zero.

The reason is beautifully set out in Nancy Stokey and Paul Milgrom’s no-trade theorem, which I call the Groucho Marx theorem: don’t belong to any club that will have you as a member. If someone offers to sell you something, he knows something you don’t.

More deeply, all trading — any deviation of portfolios from the value-weighted market index — is zero sum. Informed traders do not make money from us passive investors, they make money from other traders.

It is not a puzzle that informed traders trade and make money. The deep puzzle is why the uninformed trade, when they could do better by indexing.

Here’s how markets “should” work: You think the new iPhone is great. You try to buy Apple stock, but you run in to a wall of indexers. “How about $100?” “Sorry, we only buy and sell the whole index.” “Well, how about $120?” “Are you deaf?” You keep trying until you bid the price up to the efficient-market value, but no shares trade hands.

As Andy Abel put it, financial markets should work like the market for senior economists: Bids fly, prices change, nobody moves.

And, soon, seeing the futility of the whole business, nobody serves on committees any more. Why put time and effort into finding information if you can’t profit from it? If information is expensive to obtain, then nobody bothers, and markets cannot become efficient. (This is the Grossman-Stiglitz theorem on the impossibility of efficient markets.)

I gather quantum mechanics is off by 10 to the 120th power in the mass of empty space, which determines the fate of the universe. Volume is a puzzle of the same order, and importance, at least within our little universe.

Stock exchanges exist to support information trading. The theory of finance predicts that stock exchanges, the central institution it studies, the central source of our data, should not exist. The tiny amounts of trading you can generate for life cycle or other reasons could all easily be handled at a bank. All of the smart students I sent to Wall Street for 20 years went to participate in something that my theory said should not exist.

And it’s an important puzzle. For a long time, I think, finance got by on the presumption that we’ll get the price mostly right with the zero-volume theory, and you microstructure guys can have the last 10 basis points. More recent empirical work makes that guess seem quite wrong. It turns out to be true that prices rise when a lot of people place buy orders, despite the fact that there is a seller for each buyer. There is a strong correlation between the level of prices and trading volume — price booms involve huge turnover, busts are quiet.

At a deeper level, if we need trading to make prices efficient, but we have no idea how that process works, we are in danger that prices are quite far from efficient. Perhaps there is too little trading volume, as the rewards for digging up information are not high enough! (Ken French’s AFA presidential speech artfully asks this question.)

Our policy makers, as well as far too many economists, jump from not understanding something, to that something must be wrong, irrational, exploitative, or reflective of “greed” and needs to be stopped. A large transactions tax could well be imposed soon. Half of Washington and most of Harvard believes there is “too much” finance, meaning trading, not compliance staff, and needs policy interventions to cut trading down. The SEC and CFTC already regulate trading in great detail, and send people to jail for helping to incorporate information in to prices in ways they disapprove of. Without a good model of information trading those judgments are guesses, but equally hard to refute.

How do we get out of this conundrum? Well, so far, by a sequence of ugly patches.

Grossman and Stiglitz added “noise traders.” Why they trade rather than index is just outside the model.

Another strand, for example Viral Acharya and Lasse Pedersen’s liquidity based asset pricing model, uses life cycle motives, what you here would recognize as an overlapping generations model. They imagine that people work a week, retire for a week, and die without descendants. Well, that gets them to trade. But people are not fruit flies either.

Fernando and Andy adopt another common trick — unobservable preference shocks. If trade fundamentally comes from preferences rather than information then we avoid the puzzle of who signs up to lose money.

I don’t think it does a lot of good to call them shocks to risk aversion, and tie them to habit formation, as enamored as I am of that formulation in other contexts. Habit formation induces changes in risk aversion from changes in consumption. That makes risk aversion shocks observable, and hence contractable, which would undo trading.

More deeply, to explain volume in individual securities, you need a shock that makes you more risk averse to Apple and less risk averse to Google. It can be done, but it is less attractive and pretty close to preferences for shares themselves.

Finally, trading is huge, and hugely concentrated. Renaissance seems to have a preference shock every 10 milliseconds. I last rebalanced in 1994.

The key first principle of modern finance, going back to Markowitz, is that preferences attach to money — to the payoffs of portfolios — not to the securities that make up portfolios. A basket of stocks is not a basket of fruits. It’s not the first time that researchers have crossed this bright line. Fama and French do it. But if it is a necessary condition to generate volume, it’s awfully unpalatable. Do we really need to throw out this most basic insight of modern finance?

Another strain of literature supposes people have “dogmatic priors” or suffer from “overconfidence.” (José Scheinkman and Wei Xiong have a very nice paper along these lines, echoing Harrison and Kerps much earlier.) Perhaps. I ask practitioners why they trade and they say “I’m smarter than the average.” Exactly half are mistaken.

At one level this is a plausible path. It takes just a little overconfidence in one’s own signal to undo the no-trade-theorem information story — to introduce a little doubt into the “if he’s offering to sell me something he knows something I don’t” recursion.

On the other hand, understanding that other people are just like us, and therefore inferring motives behind actions, is very deep in psychology and rationality as well. Even chimps, offered to trade a banana for an apple, will check to make sure the banana isn’t rotten.

(Disclaimer: I made the banana story up. I remember seeing a science show on PBS about how chimps and other mammals that pass the dot test have a theory of mind, understand that others are like them and therefore question motives. But I don’t have the reference handy. Update: A friend sends this and this.)

More deeply, if you are forced to trade, a little overconfidence will get it going. But why trade at all? Why not index and make sure you’re not one of the losers? Inferring information from other’s offer to trade is only half of the no-trade theorem. The fact that rational people don’t enter a zero-sum casino in the first place is the other, much more robust, half. That line of thought equates trading with gambling — also a puzzle — or other fundamentally irrational behavior.

But are we really satisfied to state that the existence of exchanges, and the fact that information percolates into prices via a series of trades, are facts only “explainable" by human folly, that would be absent in a more perfect (or perfectly-run) world?

Moreover, that “people are idiots” (what Owen Lamont once humorously called a “technical term of behavioral finance”) might be a trenchant observation on the human condition. But, by being capable of “explaining” everything, it is not a theory of anything, as Bob Lucas uses the word “theory.”

The sheer volume of trading is the puzzle. All these non-information mechanisms — life-cycle, preference shocks, rebalancing among heterogeneous agents (Andy Lo and Jiang Wang), preference shifts, generate trading volume. But they do not generate the astronomical magnitude and concentration of volume that we see.

We know what this huge volume of trading is about. It’s about information, not preference shocks. Information seems to need trades to percolate into prices. We just don’t understand why.

Does this matter? How realistic do micro foundations have to be anyway? Actually, for Andy and Fernando’s main purpose, and that of the whole literature I just seemed to make fun of, I don’t think it’s much of a problem at all.

Grossman and Stiglitz, and their followers, want to study information traders, liquidity providers, bid-ask spreads, and other microstructure issues. Noise traders, “overconfidence,” short life spans, or preference shocks just get around the technicalities of the no-trade theorem to focus on the important part of the model, and the phenomena in the data it wants to match. Andy and Fernando want a model that generates the correlations between risk premiums and volume. For that purpose, the ultimate source of volume and why some people don’t index is probably unimportant.

We do this all the time. Bob’s great 1972 paper put people on islands and money in their hands via overlapping generations. People live in suburbs and hold money as a transactions inventory. OLG models miss velocity by a factor of 100 too. (OLG money and life-cycle volume models are closely related.) So what? Economic models are quantitative parables. You get nowhere if you fuss too much about micro foundations of peripheral parts. More precisely, we have experience and intuition that roughly the same results come from different peripheral micro foundations.

If I were trying to come up with a model of trading tomorrow, for example to address the correlation of prices with volume (my “Money as stock” left that hanging, and I’ve always wanted to come back to it), that’s what I’d do too.

At least, for positive purposes. We also have experience that models with different micro foundations can produce much the same positive predictions, but have wildly different welfare implications and policy conclusions. So I would be much more wary of policy conclusions from a model in which trading has nothing to do with information. So, though I love this paper’s answer (transactions taxes are highly damaging), and I tend to like models that produce this result, that is no more honest than most transactions tax thought, which is also an answer eternally in search of a question.

At this point, I should summarize the actual contributions of the paper. It’s really a great paper about risk sharing in incomplete markets, and less about volume. Though the micro foundations are a bit artificial, it very nicely gets at why volume factors seem to generate risk premiums. For that purpose, I agree, just why people trade so much is probably irrelevant. But, having blabbed so much about big picture, I’ll have to cut short the substance.

How will we really solve the volume puzzle, and related just what “liquidity” means? How does information make its way into markets via trading? With many PhD students in the audience, let me emphasize how deep and important this question is, and offer some wild speculations.

As in all science, new observations drive new theory. We’re learning a lot about how information gets incorporated in prices via trading. For example, Brian Weller and Shrihari Santosh show how pieces of information end up in prices through a string of intermediaries, just as vegetables make their way from farmer to your table — and with just as much objection from bien-pensant economists who have decried “profiteers” and “middlemen” for centuries.

Also, there is a lot of trading after a discrete piece of information hits the market symmetrically, such as a change in Federal Funds rate. Apparently it takes trading for people to figure out what the information means. I find this observation particularly interesting. It’s not just my signal and your signal.

And new theory demands new technique too, something that we learned from Bob. (Bob once confessed that learning the math behind dynamic programming had been really hard.)

What is this “information” anyway? Models specify a “signal” about liquidating dividends. But 99% of “information” trading is not about that at all. If you ask a high speed trader about signals about liquidating dividends, they will give you a blank stare. 99% of what they do is exactly inferring information from prices — not just the level of the price but its history, the history of quotes, volumes, and other data. This is the mechanism we need to understand.

Behind the no-trade theorem lies a classic view of information — there are 52 cards in the deck, you have three up and two down, I infer probabilities, and so forth. Omega, F, P. But when we think about information trading in asset markets, we don’t even know what the card deck is. Perhaps the ambiguity or robust control ideas Lars Hansen and Tom Sargent describe, or the descriptions of decision making under information overload that computer scientists study will hold the key. For a puzzle this big, and this intractable, I think we will end up needing new models of information itself. And then, hopefully, we will not have to throw out rationality, the implication that trading is all due to human folly, or the basic principles of finance such as preferences for money not securities.

Well, I think I’ve hit 4 of the 6 Bob Lucas deadly sins — big picture motivation, comments about about whole classes of theories, methodological musings, and wild speculation about future research. I’ll leave the last two — speculations about policy and politics, and the story of how one thought about the paper — for Andy and Fernando!

6 Aug 2020

A Better Choice - Barokong

Roll up your shirtsleeves, financial economists. As reported by Elizabeth Dexheimer at Bloomberg, Rep. Jeb Hensarling is “interested in working on a 2.0 version,”  of his financial choice act, the blueprint for reforming Dodd-Frank. “Advice and counsel is welcome."

The core of the choice act is simple. Large banks must fund themselves with more capital and less debt. It strives for a very simple measure of capital adequacy in place of complex Basel rules, by using a simple leverage ratio. And it has a clever carrot in place of the stick. Banks with enough capital are exempt from a swath of Dodd-Frank regulation.

Market based alternatives to a leverage ratio

The most important question, I think, is how, and whether, to improve on the leverage ratio with simple, transparent  measure of capital adequacy. Keep in mind, the purpose is not to determine a minimum capital level at which a bank is resolved, closed down, bailed out, etc. The purpose is a minimal capital ratio at which a bank is so systemically safe that it can be exempt from a lot of regulation.

The "right" answer remains, in my view, the pure one: 100% equity plus long term debt to fund risky investments, and short term liabilities entirely backed by treasuries or reserves (various essays here). But, though I still think it's eminently practical, it's not on the current agenda, and our task is to come up with something better than a leverage ratio for the time being.

Here are my thoughts. This post is an invitation to critique and improve.

Market values. First, we should use the market value of equity and other assets, not the book value. Risk weights are complicated and open to games, and no asset-by-asset system captures correlations between assets. Value at risk does, but people trust the correlations in those models even less than they trust risk weights. Accounting values pretend assets are worth more than they really are, except when accounting values force marks to market that are illiquid or "temporarily impaired."

Market values solve these problems neatly. If the assets are unfairly marked to market, equity analysts know that and assign a higher value to the equity. If assets are negatively correlated so the sum is worth more than the parts, equity analysts now that and assign a higher value to the equity.

Liabilities not assets. Second, we should use the ratios of liability values,  not ratios to asset values.   Rather than measure a ratio of equity to (accounting) asset values, look at the ratio of equity to the debt that the bank issues. Here, I would divide market value of equity by the face value of debt, and especially debt under one year. We want to know, can the bank pay off its creditors or will there be a run.

In principle, the value of assets = the value of liabilities so it shouldn't matter. Accountant and regulator assets are not the same as liabilities, which raises the important question -- if you want to measure asset values rather than (much simpler) liability values, then why are your asset values not the same as my liability values?

So far, then, I think the ratio of market value of equity to (equity + face value of debt) is both better and much simpler than the leverage ratio, book value of equity to complex book value of assets.

One can do better on ratios. (Equity + 1/2 market value of long-term unsecured debt ) / market value    of short term debt is attractive, as the main danger is a run on short-term debt.

Use option prices for tails. Market value of equity / face value of debt is, I think, an improvement on leverage ratios all around. But both measures have a common problem,  and I think we can do better.

A leverage (equity/assets) ratio doesn't distinguish between the riskiness of the assets. A bank facing a leverage constraint has an incentive to take on more risk. For example, you can buy a stock which costs $100, or a call option which costs $10, each having the same risk -- when the stock market moves 1%, each gains or loses $1 of value. But at a 10% leverage the stock needs $10 of capital and the call option only $1.

The main motivation of risk-weights is to try to measure assets' risk -- not the current value, but the chance of a big loss in value -- and make sure there is enough equity around for all but the worst risks. So let's try to do this with market prices.

A simple idea: So, you're worried that the same value of equity corresponds to a riskier portfolio? Fine: use option prices to measure the banks' riskiness. If bank A has bought stock worth $100, but bank B has 10 times riskier call options worth the same $100, then bank B's option prices will be much larger -- more precisely, the implied volatility of its options will be larger.

So, bottom line: Use the implied volatility of bank options to measure the riskiness of the bank's assets. As a very simple example, suppose a bank has $10 market value of equity, $90 market value of debt, and 25% implied volatility of equity. The 25% implied volatility of equity means 2.5% implied volatility of total assets, so (very roughly) the bank is four standard deviations away from wiping out its equity. Yes, this is a simplistic example, and the refinements are pretty obvious.

(For non-finance people: An option gives you the right to buy or sell a stock at a given price. The more volatile the stock, the more valuable the option. The right to sell for $80 a stock currently going at $100 is worth more, the more likely the stock is to fall below $80, i.e. the more volatile the stock. So option prices tell you the market's best guess of the chance that stocks can take a big fall.  You can recover from option prices the "implied volatility," a measure of the standard deviation of stock returns.)

We might be able to simplify even further. As a bank issues more equity and less debt, the equity gets safer and safer, and stock volatility goes down, and the implied volatility of options goes down. Perhaps it is enough to say "the implied volatility of your at the money options shall be no more than 10%."

Here's the prettiest rule I can think of. A put option is the right to sell stock at a given price. Assemble the minimum cost of put options that give the bank the right to issue stock sufficient to cover its short-term debt. For example, if the bank has $1,000 of short-term debt, then we could look at the value of 10 put options, each giving the bank the right to sell its stock at $100. If the market value of equity is greater than the cost of this set of put options, then the bank is ok.

(It would be better still if banks actually bought these put options, so they always had sitting there the right to issue equity in bad times. But then you might complain about liquidity and counterparty risk, so let's just use this as a measurement device.)

That's probably too fancy, but one should always start with the ideal before compromising. (Back to 100% equity.... )

In summary, I think we could improve a lot on the current leverage ratio by 1) using market values of equity 2) using ratios of liabilities, not accounting asset values at all and 3) using option prices to measure risk.

I left out the use of bond yields or credit default swaps to measure risk. The greater a chance of default, the higher interest rate that markets charge for debt, so one could in principle use that measure. It has been proposed as a trigger for contingent bonds or for regulatory intervention. I'm leery of it for lots of reasons. First, we're here to measure capital adequacy, so let's measure capital. Second, credit markets don't provide good measures of whether you're three or four standard deviations from default. Third, credit markets include not just the chance of default, but also the guess about recovery in default, and thus a guess about how big the bailout will be. But there is no reason in principle not to include bond information in the general picture -- so long as we can keep to the rule simple and transparent .

Our first step is to get our regulators to trust the basics: 1) stock markets provide good measures of total value -- at least better than regulators 2) option markets provide good measures of risk -- at least better than regulators.

Why not? I think our regulators and especially banks don't trust market values. They prefer the central-planning hubris that accountants and regulators can figure out what the market value and risk are better than the actual market.

If so, let's put this on the table in the open and discuss it. If the answer is "your proposal to use market value of equity and options is perfect in theory but we trust regulators to get values right a lot more than markets," then at least we have made 90% progress, and we can start examining the central question whether regulators and accountants do, in fact, outperform market measures. The question is not perfection or clairvoyance, it's whether markets or regulatory rules do a less bad job. Markets were way ahead of regulators in the last crisis.

What if market gyrations drive down the value of a bank's stock? Well, this is an important signal that bank management and regulators should take seriously by gum! Banks should have issued a lot more equity to start with to make sure this doesn't happen; banks should have issued cocos or bought put options if they think raising equity is hard. And when a bank's equity takes a tumble that is a great time to send the regulators in to see what happened. The choice act very nicely sets the equity ratio up as the point where we exempt banks from regulation, not a cliff where they get shut down.

Let's also remember, when you read the details, the leverage ratio is not all that simple or transparent either.Here is a good summary.

And let's also remember that perfection should not be the enemy of the much better. Current Basel style capital regulations are full of distorted incentives and gaming invitations. If there are small remaining imperfections, that

Or maybe not

Is fixing the leverage ratio all important?  What's wrong with a leverage ratio? Right now, banks have to issue capital if they take your money and hold reserves at the Fed or short term Treasury debt. That obviously doesn't make much sense as it is a completely riskless activity. More subtly, a leverage ratio forces banks to issue capital against activities that are almost as safe, such as repo lending secured by Treasuries.  Required reading on these points: Darrell Duffie Financial Regulatory Reform after the crisis: An Assessment

... the regulation known as the leverage ratio has caused a distortionary reduction in the incentives for banks to intermediate markets for safe assets, especially the government securities repo market, without apparent financial stability benefits....I will suggest adjustments to the leverage ratio rule that would improve the liquidity of government securities markets and other low-risk high-importance markets, without sacrificing financial stability.
The natural response is to start risk-weighting lite. The Bank of England recently exempted government securities from their leverage ratio.  The natural response to the response is, once we start making exceptions, the lobbyists swarm in for more. You can see in Duffie's writing that an exemption for repo lending collateralized by Treasuries will come next. Given the fraction of people who understand how that works, the case for resisting more exemptions will be weak.

The poster child for the ills of risk-weighted asset regulation: Greek sovereign debt still carries no risk weight in Europe. Basel here we come.

Interestingly, Duffie does not see banks currently shifting to riskier investing, the other major concern, though that may be because the Volker rule, Basel risk weights and other constraints also apply. So perhaps I should state the market-based measures not as alternatives to the leverage rule, but as measures to add to the leverage rule, in place of the other constraints on too much risk.

But how much damage is really done by asking capital for safe investments? Recall the Modigliani-Miller theorem after all. If a bank issues equity to fund riskfree investments, the equity is pretty darn risk free too, and carries a low cost of capital.  Yes, MM doesn't hold for banks, but that's in large part because of subsidies and guarantees for debt, and it's closer to true than to totally false -- the expected return on equity does depend on that equity's risk -- and the social MM theorem is a lot closer to holding and that's what matters for policy.

And even if funneling money to safe investments costs, say, an extra percent, does that really justify the whole Dodd-Frank mess?

In the end, it is not written in stone that large, systemic, too big to fail banks must provide intermediation to safe investments. A money market fund can take your deposits and turn them in to reserves, needing no equity at all. A bank could sponsor such a fund, run your deposits through that fund, and you'd never notice the difference until the moment the bank goes under... and your fund is intact.

Duffle again:

These resiliency reforms, particularly bank capital regulations, have caused some reduction in secondary market liquidity. While bid-ask spreads and most other standard liquidity metrics suggest that markets are about as liquid for small trades as they have been for a long time, liquidity is worse for block-sized trade demands. As a trade-off for significantly greater financial stability, this is a cost well worth bearing. Meanwhile, markets are continuing to slowly adapt to the reduction of balance sheet space being made available for market-making by bank-affiliated dealers. [my emphasis] Even more stringent minimum requirements for capital relative to risk-weighted assets would, in my view, offer additional net social benefits.

I emphasized the important sentence here. There are many other ways to funnel risk free money to risk free lending activities. The usual mistake in financial policy is to presume that the current big banks must always remain, and must always keep the same scope of their current activities -- and that new banks, or new institutions, cannot arise when profitable businesses like intermediation open up.

So, in the worst case that a liquidity ratio makes it too expensive for banks to funnel deposits to reserves, to fund market-making or repo lending, then all of those activities can move outside of big banks.

More Choice act

The Choice act has some additional very interesting characteristics.

Most of all, it offers a carrot instead of a stick: Banks with sufficient equity are exempt from a swath of regulation.

That carrot is very clever. We don't have to repeal and replace Dodd-Frank it its entirety, and we don't have to force the big banks to utterly restructure things overnight. Want to go on hugely leveraged? The regulators will be back in Monday morning. Would you rather be free to do things as you see fit and not spend all week filling out forms? Then stop whining, issue some equity or cut dividends for a while.

More deeply, it offers a path for new financial institutions to enter and compete. Compliance costs and a compliance department are not only a drag on existing businesses, they are a huge barrier to entry. Are markets illiquid? Are there people who can't get loans? The answer, usually forgotten in policy, is not to prod existing businesses but to allow new ones to enter. A new pathway -- lots of capital in return for less asset-risk regulation -- will allow that to happen.

Both politically and economically, it is much easier to let Dodd-Frank die on the vine than to uproot and replant it.

In the department of finish sanding, I would also suggest a good deal more than 10% equity.   I also would prefer a stairstep -- 10% buys exemption from x (maybe SIFI), 20% buys you exemption from y, and so forth, until at maybe 80% equity + long term debt you're not even a "bank" any more.

Remember, the issue is runs, not failure. Banks should fail, equity wiped out, and long-term debt becomes equity. The point of regulation is not to make sure banks are "safe" and "don't fail." The point of regulation is to stop runs and crises. So ratios that emphasize short term debt are the most important ones.

Duffle (above) also comes down on the side of more capital still. The "Minneapolis plan" spearheaded by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (Speech,report by James Pethokoukis at AEI) envisions even more capital, up to 38%.

5 Aug 2020

Balance sheet balance - Barokong

The Fed has a huge "balance sheet" -- It owns about $3 trillion of government bonds and mortgage backed securities, which it finances by issuing about $1 trillion of cash and $2 trillion of reserves -- interest-bearing accounts that banks have at the Fed. Is this a problem? Should the Fed trim the balance sheet going forward?

On Tuesday Dec 6, I participated on a panel at Hoover's Washington offices to discuss the book "Central Bank Governance And Oversight Reform" with very distinguished colleagues, Michael Bordo, Charles Plosser, John Taylor, and Kevin Warsh. We're not afraid to disagree with each other on panels -- there's no "Hoover view" one has to hew to, so I learned a lot and I think we came to some agreement on this issue in particular.

Me: The balance sheet is not a problem. The Fed is just one gargantuan money market fund, invested in Treasuries, with a credit guarantee from the Treasury. Interest bearing reserves are perfect substitutes to bonds. The Fed is just making change, taking $20 bills (Treasuries) and giving out $5 and $10 in return. The Fed can easily run monetary policy by just paying more or less interest on reserves.

Plosser: The balance sheet is a big problem. Yes, John's right that interest bearing reserves won't cause inflation so long as banks just sit on them. But will banks just sit on them? Right now, banks don't see enough profitable lending opportunities to care. But if they do, will the Fed really pay enough interest to keep hugely inflationary amounts of reserves from feeding the money supply? What will Congress say when the Fed is paying 3%, 4%, or more to banks to bribe the banks not to lend money to American business and consumers?

Worse, focus on what the Fed is buying not what it is issuing. If the Fed were just buying short-term treasuries John might have a point. But it's buying long term bonds, intervening in the bond market; mortgage backed securities, funneling money to houses. This is credit allocation. The ECB is buying corporate bonds and the BOJ is buying stocks. Congress already raided some of the Fed's assets. So there may not be a big economic problem but there is a huge political economy problem.

(This isn't a quote, and I'm going from memory as we don't have a record of the panel. I hope I'm not mis-characterizing Plosser's view too much. If I am, well, take it as what I learned from the discussion and my own much better sympathy for a countervailing view.)

Taylor: The Fed should not just wind down the huge balance sheet, but it should go back to a very small amount of reserves that do not pay interest. Then it should go back to controlling interest rates by open market operations, and a binding money multiplier. (Taylor, being a lot more polite than the rest of us, did not go into detail on this, but I think he's worried about the Fed being able to control interest rates under interest on reserves (IOR), and whether changing interest rates under IOR with a slack multiplier will make any difference. Again, if this isn't Taylor's view, at least it is a view that I appreciate more after the discussion.)

Well, how to we reconcile this?

I think Plosser is right about the asset side of the balance sheet, and he seems to think I'm mostly right about the liability side. How to square that circle?

I think we would all be happier if the Fed did not keep maturity and credit risk on its balance sheet. Instead, if the Fed really wants to intervene quickly in asset markets and buy anything but short term treasuries (a big if, but there seemed to be consensus that at least in a crisis such purchases might have to be made) then the Fed should swap them to the Treasury within, say, 6 months, so any long-term credit allocation and risk is in the Treasury where it belongs.

(This is, I think, illegal right now. The Fed cannot deal directly with the Treasury, one of many bright little ways our ancestors set up the system to prevent inflationary finance. But that can be fixed.)

And, granted that large amounts of interest-bearing reserves are a good thing -- lots of non-inflationary oil in the economic car -- the Fed doesn't have to be the one to provide them. I brought up again my proposal that the Treasury should issue fixed-value floating-rate small-denomination electronically-transferable debt -- i.e. reserves -- to everyone, not just banks. You should be able to go to treasury.gov and sign up for the treasury's money market fund. All the Fed is doing by buying short-term treasuries and issuing reserves is creating this new class of government debt out of other kinds of government debt. Why not have the Treasury issue it directly? Then the Fed could in fact wind down its balance sheet to near nothing, without losing any of the liquidity and financial stability benefits of interest on reserves.

Plosser seems to go along. Taylor not yet, but sitting on a panel it was hard for any of us to think how this would work in a world of very small non interest bearing bank reserves. (I think it would -- Treasury floaters would not be much different from short term treasury debt from a bank's perspective.)

So we learn from each other on the panel, as well as the sharp questions from the audience. Thanks to everyone who came (and to our second panel on the Blueprint for America), it was a very productive day.

Update

Discussion now available online, embed below, link here. Now we can see how my memory matches up with the facts.

27 Jul 2020

Covered Interest Parity - Barokong

Here's how covered interest parity works. Think of two ways to invest money, risklessly, for a year. Option 1: buy a one-year CD (conceptually. If you are a bank, or large corporation you do this by a repurchase agreement). Option 2: Buy euros, buy a one-year European CD, and enter a forward contract by which you get dollars back for your euros one year from now, at a predetermined rate. Both are entirely risk free. They should therefore give exactly the same rate of return, by arbitrage. If european interest rates are higher than US interest rates, then the forward price of the euro should be lower, enough to exactly offset the apparent higher return.  If not, then banks can (say), borrow in the US, go through the european option, pay back the US loan and receive an absolutely sure profit.

Of course there are transactions costs, and the borrowing rate is different from the lending rate. But there are also lots of smart long-only investors who will chase a few tenths of a percent of completely riskless yield. So, traditionally, covered interest parity held very well.

An update, thanks to "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity" by Wenxin Du, Alexander Tepper, and Adrien Verdelhan. (Wenxin presented the paper at Stanford GSB recently, hence this blog post.)

The covered interest rate parity relationship fell apart in the financial crisis. And that's understandable. To take advantage of it, you first have to ... borrow dollars. Good luck with that in fall 2008. Long-only investors had more important things on their minds than some cockamaime scheme to invest abroad and use forward markets to gain a half percent per year or so on their abundant (ha!) cash balances.

The amazing thing is, the arbitrage spread has not really closed down since the crisis. See the first graph. [graph follows]

Source: Du, Tepper, and Verhdelhan

What is going on?

Du, Tepper and Verdelhan do a great job of understanding the markets, the institutional details, and tracking down the usual suspects. Their conclusion: it's real. Banks are constrained by capital and liquidity requirements. The trade may be risk free, but you need regulatory capital to do it.

A great indication of this institutional friction is in the next graph [graph follows]:

Figure 7: Illustration of Quarter-End Dynamics for the Term Structure of CIP Deviations: In both figures, the blue shaded area denotes the dates for which the settlement and maturity of a one-week contract spans two quarters. The grey shaded area denotes the dates for which the settlement and maturity dates of a one-month contract spans two quarters, and excludes the dates in the blue shaded area. The top figure plots one-week, one-month and three-month CIP Libor CIP deviations for the yen in red, green and orange, respectively. The bottom figure plots the difference between 3-month and 1-month Libor CIP deviation for the yen in green and between 1-month and 1-week Libor CIP deviation for the yen in red.
It turns out that European banks only need capital against quarter-end trading positions. US banks need capital against the average of the entire quarter. Thus, one week before the end of the quarter, european banks will not enter into any one-week bets. And one week before the end of the quarter (red line, top graph), the spread on one week covered interest parity zooms. One month before the end of the quarter, the spread on one month covered interest parity zooms. (This is called "window dressing" in finance, making your balance sheet look good for a one-day snapshot at the end of the quarter.) If this gives you great confidence in the technocratic competence of bank regulators, you're reading the wrong blog.

So far, so good, but reflect really: this makes no sense at all. Banks are leaving pure arbitrage opportunities on the table, for years at a time. OK, maybe the Modigliani-Miller theorem isn't exactly true, there is some agency cost, and the cost of additional equity is a little higher than it should be. But this is arbitrage! It's an infinite Sharpe ratio! You would need an infinite cost of equity not to want to eventually issue some stock, retain some earnings rather than pay out as dividends, to boost capital and do some more covered interest arbitrage.

At the seminar a pleasant discussion followed, centering on "debt overhang." If a bank issues equity and does something profitable, this can end up only benefitting bond holders. I'm still a bit dubious that this is what is going on, but it is a potential and very interesting story.

But that's still not enough. Where are the hedge funds? Where are the new banks? If an arbitrage opportunity is really sitting on the table, start a new fund or bank, 100% equity financed (no debt overhang) and get in to the business. Especially at quarter end. Really, is there nobody with spare "balance sheet capacity" to grab these quarter end window dressing opportunities? Apparently, low-cost access to these market is limited to the big TBTF banks, which is why hedge funds have not leapt in to the business? (Question mark -- is that really true? ) Still, why not start a money market fund to give greater returns by going the long end of the arbitrage? Alas there are regulatory barriers here too, as even a riskless arbitrage fund can no longer promise a riskless return.

These are the remaining questions. The episode in the end paints, to me, not so much the standard picture of limits to arbitrage. It paints a picture of an industry cartelized by regulation, keeping out new entrants.

But they are great graphs to ponder in any case -- and a good paper.

Update:A hedge fund manager writes:

Right now:

US T-bill:  +0.98%

Japan T-bill:  -0.34%

Difference between spot USDJPY, and 1yr forward USDJPY:  1.91%

So if you start with dollars, you can make 0.98% if you just buy a 1yr T-bill, and 1.57% if you change your dollars to yen, buy a 1yr Japanese t-bill with the money, and enter a 12mo currency forward to change your money back into dollars at the end of it all.  So the arb, which you can lock in for 1yr which is a pretty long time, is 59 bps right now.

[JC: Notice the trade is to buy yen, not dollars. This is a point made in the paper which I didn't cover well enough. There is a big flow of money the other way, borrowing yen, buying dollars and not hedging, since statistically currency depreciation does not soak up the interest differential.]

But a hedge fund can’t lever that trade up.  Hedge funds to a first approximation can’t borrow uncollateralized. They can but unsecured lending to a hedge fund would be at least risk-free plus 200bps and so would destroy the arbitrage.   And while getting leverage on T-bills (for example) is securitized and so the cash is borrowed at a rate that allows the arbitrage, you can’t net generate cash by buying a t-bill (you can borrow the cash to pay for the t-bill and pledge the t-bill as collateral, but you aren’t left with cash you can do whatever you want with after that transaction).  So the hedge fund can’t generate more USD cash in order to turn it into yen, buy Japanese T-bills, etc.

It only works for banks because they have access to unsecured borrowing (deposits) at a rate that allows the arb.  Which hedge funds don’t have access to. [JC: my emphasis]

This pops up in other markets too btw, the ability to get an extra 50 bps or so by using USD cash, if you are willing to do a little gymnastics.  For example, you can go long the S&P 500 with either futures (a synthetic instrument; just a bet) or via an ETF (a cash instrument that requires you to pay for it).  The rolls on S&P futures are priced such that your return from rolling a long S&P 500 futures position is about 50 bps (annually) lower than your return from just buying an S&P ETF.  But the levels at which dealers which provide leverage for long-only equities positions take that 50 bps back again, so you can’t lever up the arbitrage.

My model of this fwiw is:

-dealers have the cash to do this and had the job of keeping this in line until 2008

-after 2008 various regulatory constraints and reg cap requirements made this not attractive for big banks unless the spread approachs 100 bps, so they are not really players any more

-there are some players that will do this.  The biggest are reserve managers.  The second biggest are probably  hedge funds using excess cash balances (not sure how big corporates with cash balances are in this space).  But that’s not enough to make markets efficient. [JC: Sovereign wealth funds, endowments, family offices...?]

-in general there is a huge universe of people trying to enhance yields on cash.  It seems like those folks should be able to close the gap here.  But most of them (for example money market funds) have constraints that won’t let them do these sorts of trades. [JC: I think currently even though investing FX covered forward is risk free, you would have to offer a floating value fund for that investment.]

-I assume eventually the market will do what you think it should, and the people seeking to enhance their cash returns will find these trades and structure themselves in a way they can take advantage of them.  But it has taken a lot longer than I thought. [JC Me too. From which I learn that competition, entry, and innovation in banking is a lot less than I thought.]

Separately, a bit more on debt overhang. At the seminar one colleague opined that we are now at just about the worst set of capital requirements. With historically low capital requirements, banks were willing to do a lot of arbitrage and intermediation. With very high capital requirements, debt overhang is no longer a problem. Our current capital requirements bind, but mean debt overhang is so severe that equity does not want to issue more equity in order to take a pure arbitrage.

My two comments on this: one, it makes a great case for much larger capital requirements! Second, if capital won't flow in to current banks to take an arbitrage opportunity, the other answer is new banks. Back to regulatory barriers to entry.

Update 2: Gordon Liao has a nice working paper, Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity. He notices that the covered interest arbitrage spread moves closely with corporate bond spreads, over longer horizons. (Not, I think, the gorgeous quarter end effect above).

Source: Gordon Liao

Du, Tepper and Verdelhan make a similar point,

Liao also points to an interesting channel. Corporations can issue debt at the corporate bond rate to invest in arbitrages. Capital will flow, in interesting ways. He also points out that hedge funds integrate the term structure of CIP, smoothing out the deviation across different maturities.

To Gordon this is about limits to arbitrage and segmentation. But once several asset classes get segmented together, they stop being so segmented. When multiple spreads are all moving together one also sees a generic risk premium start to emerge.

26 Jul 2020

More good finance articles - Barokong

The February Issue of the Journal of Finance made it to the top of my stack, and it has a lot of good articles. The first two especially caught my attention,Who Are the Value and Growth Investors? by Sebastien Bertermeier, Larent Calvet, and Paolo Sodini, and Asset Pricing Without Garbage by Tim Kroencke. A review, followed by more philosophical thoughts.

I  Bertermeier, Calvet, and Sodini.

Background: Value stocks (low price to book value) outperform growth stocks (high price to book value). Value stocks all move together -- if they fall, they all fall togther -- so this is a "factor risk" not an arbitrage opportunity. But who would not want to take advantage of the value factor? This is an enduring puzzle.

Fama and French offered one of the best paragraphs in finance as a suggestion:

One possible explanation is linked to human capital, an important asset for most investors. Consider an investor with specialized human capital tied to a growth firm (or industry or technology). A negative shock to the firm's prospects probably does not reduce the value of the investor's human capital; it may just mean that employment in the firm will expand less rapidly. In contrast, a negative shock to a distressed [value] firm more likely implies a negative shock to the value of specialized human capital since employment in the firm is more likely to contract. Thus, workers with specialized human capital in distressed firms have an incentive to avoid holding their firms' [value] stocks. If variation in distress is correlated across firms, workers in distressed firms have an incentive to avoid the stocks of all distressed firms. The result can be a state-variable risk premium in the expected returns of distressed stocks.
But nobody has seen these investors, who shun value stocks despite their high average return, because value stocks are correlated with those investors' human capital. Value funds tend not to have many customers who come in, learn about the value/growth premium and factor and say "thanks, I'd like to short value" (Lots want to buy hot growth stocks, but hedging is probably not directly on their minds, and it takes a pretty strong "as if" argument to ignore that)

Enter Bertermeier, Calvet, and Sodini.

we examine value and growth investments in a highly detailed administrative panel that contains the disaggregated holdings and socioeconomic characteristics of all Swedish residents between 1999 and 2007.
Value investors are substantially older, are more likely to be female, have higher financial and real estate wealth, and have lower leverage, income risk, and human capital than the average growth investor. By contrast, men, entrepreneurs, and educated investors are more likely to invest in growth stocks.
over the life cycle, households climb the “value ladder,” that is, gradu- ally shift from growth to value investing as their investment horizons shorten and their balance sheets and human capital evolve.
...we find that a single macroeconomic factor—per-capita national income growth— explains on average 88% of the time-series variation of per-capita income in any given two-digit SIC industry. Households employed in sectors with high exposure to the macroeconomic factor tend to select portfolios of stocks and funds with low value loadings. ... Furthermore, we show that cross-sectoral differences in loadings are more pronounced for young households than for mature households, consistent with the intuition that human capital risk is primarily borne by the young. As a result, the value ladder is empirically steeper in more cyclical industries.
...More financially secure households should generally be better able to tolerate investment risk .. Consistent with these predictions, we document that households with high financial wealth, low debt, and low background risk tend to invest their financial wealth aggressively in risky assets and select risky portfolios with a value tilt.
The numbers seem big to me. For example, Figure 2:

Figure 2. The value ladder. The figure plots the value loading of the risky portfolio (Panel A) and the stock portfolio (Panel B) for different cohorts of households. Each solid line corresponds to the average loadings of households in a given cohort, weighted by financial wealth. Each dotted line is the corresponding predicted value loading, obtained by using age, wealth variables, and human capital multiplied by the household-level baseline regression coefficients in Table III. A cohort is defined as a five-year age bin. The first cohort contains households with a head aged between 30 and 34 in 1999, while the oldest cohort has a head aged between 70 and 74 in 1999. The loadings of all households in year t are demeaned to control for changes in the composition of the Swedish stock market. Panel A is based on the panel of all Swedish risky asset market participants and Panel B on the panel of all Swedish direct stockholders over the 1999 to 2007 period.

-0.3 to 0.3 loadings on HML are quite large. Most value mutual funds don't get that big. (HML is lolg value and short growth)

Overall,

The patterns we uncover appear remarkably consistent with the portfolio implications of risk-based theories.
To be fair, the authors offer behavioral interpretations as well,

we find that sentiment-based explanations of the value premium also help explain the portfolio evidence. Overconfidence, which is more prevalent among men than women (Barber and Odean (2001)), is consistent with the growth tilt of male investors. [JC, yes, but that's pretty weak. Men and women also have different human capital paths on average.] As attention theory predicts (Barber and Odean (2008)), a majority of direct stockholders hold a small number of popular stocks. Furthermore, some of the portfolio evidence can be explained by complementary risk-based and psychological stories. For instance, the growth tilt of entrepreneurs can be attributed both to exposure to private business risk (Heaton and Lucas (2000), Moskowitz and Vissing-Jørgensen (2002)) and to marked overconfidence in own decision-making skills (Busenitz and Barney (1997))
But I'm interested that all of these are "alternative explanations" of things that also have portfolio interpretations, not puzzling facts that have no portfolio interpretation, which is the usual bread and butter of behavioral finance. (It looks a lot like defense against referees to me!)

II Kroencke:

Background: The main question of asset pricing is, why do some assets reliably earn higher returns, on average, than others? The answer is, compensation for risk. Our benchmark model says this: People in Fall 2008 were really unhappy that just as their jobs and businesses were in trouble, and just as they were cutting back on consumption expenditures, their stock portfolios fell too. How nice it would have been if stocks rose on the occasion, and so could buffer other misfortune. In turn, that means people will, ahead of time, shy away from stocks that are likely to fall more in bad times, lowering their prices and raising their average returns. In sum, our baseline model is

Expected return - risk free rate = (risk aversion coefficient) x (covariance of return with consumption growth)

This model does work, qualitatively. Stocks covary with consumption growth more than bonds. However, the measured covariances are small, so the risk aversion coefficient you need to get this to work is absurdly high -- 50 or more. Such people don't get out of bed in the morning for fear of anvils falling from the sky.

For a long time, -- since this model emerged in the early 1980s -- we've recognized that some of the trouble may lie with measured consumption growth. Kroencke has a good review of the many attempts to get around this project. Two stand out worth mentioning here. Alexi Savov wrote the beautiful Asset Pricing with garbage. More consumption means more garbage, and data on garbage are in some ways (more below) cleaner than data on consumption. The standard model works a lot better using garbage to measure consumption.

Another long time favorite of mine is Ravi Jagannathan and Yong Wang's "Lazy investors..." paper, which is great except for the title in my opinion. They used fourth quarter to fourth quarter consumption growth rather than the usual monthly consumption growth. Surely asset prices are not driven by who goes up and down at lunch time. Similarly, it only takes a moment's thought to realize that monthly consumption numbers are poorly measured for this purpose. An especially nice feature of Jagannathan and Wang don't really make progress on the equity premium. But covariances with fourth quarter to fourth quarter consumption growth explain the value premium nicely, a tougher puzzle really (see above!)

As Korencke puts it

using fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter consumption is a straightforward way to mitigate time-aggregation and to bring the data closer to point consumption growth as well
Now, Kroencke. Your first instinct might be "measurement error," but that isn't necessarily a problem

Observable consumption is subject to measurement error, which is uncorrelated with stock market returns. From an asset pricing perspective, observable consumption growth would be eligible to measure the consumption risk of stock returns, that is, should produce unbiased estimates of consumption covariances.
Let me unpack that. Suppose consumption growth has a measurement error uncorrelated with anything. Then

covariance(return, measured consumption growth) = covariance[return, (true consumption growth + measurement error)]
but if measurement error is uncorrelated with everything, it's also uncorrelated with returns, and

covariance(return, measured consumption growth) = covariance[return, true consumption growth]

So what is the problem? The central insight

However, NIPA statisticians do not attempt to provide a consumption series to measure stock market consumption risk. Instead, they try to estimate the level of consumption as precisely as possible. As a result, they optimally filter observable consumption to generate their series of reported NIPA consumption.
This is a beautiful and deep insight. The problem is not "error." The problem (pervasive in finance) is that the data are collected for another purpose.

Example: Suppose you are a government statistician, and you are asked to provide numbers on consumption, whose levels are as accurate as possible. You have consumption on Monday = $200, and consumption on Wednesday = $210. You don't have data for Tuesday. What do you report? $205 of course! That's the best guess you have of the level of consumption.

But asset pricing demands the growth rate of consumption. And asset pricing is very sensitive about timing.  If we shift all consumption measures one period forward or backward in time, the level measurement is not far off. But that destroys the correlation of consumption growth rates with anything else.

This is a pervasive problem in finance. Venture capital, private equity, university endowments or any other institution holding illiquid assets does rightly the same thing. Real estate values have the same problem. Suppose you see a true market value $200 on Monday and $210 on Wednesday. What do you report for Tuesday? Well, $205 of course. That is the best guess of the level of the asset on Tuesday. But a time series of such guesses grossly understates the volatility of the assets, makes returns artificially serially correlated (if you fill in from Monday through Friday, it will seem like a positive return every day), and destroys their correlation or betas with other assets. Beware using numbers for unintended purposes. Beware the Sharpe ratios of illiquid assets.

On top, filtering is intensified by the well-known bias stemming from time-aggregation
NIPA consumption is the total consumption over the month (at best). If you correlate that consumption with asset returns from last day of previous month to last day of this month, you're making a mistake.

Kroencke "unfilters" consumption data. He uses a nice model of how the BEA filters the data, a more complex version of my Monday-Wednesday example, to make a good guess of what the data looked like before filtering, i.e. what underlying growth rates really are. (You can't do this in my example, but suppose my example was, you observe Monday $200, Wednesday $210, and you have data for some components but are missing others for Tuesday. To measure growth rates and correlations, you would not use the Monday and Wednesday data as much, and would rely more on the partial observations for Tuesday)

The results?

unfiltered NIPA consumption is able to explain the equity premium together with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) preferences with a coefficient of relative risk aversion between 19 and 23 in the postwar period (1960–2014),
unfiltered NIPA consumption can explain a substantial fraction of the average returns of decile portfolios sorted by size, book-to-market, and investment growth.

Alas, Kroencke didn't make any nice average return vs. covariance plots for the blog, so you'll have to go read the tables.

There is another, rather dramatic point that surfaces early and its impact explained toward the end.Unfiltered consumption data look a lot more like a random walk.

This is the "variance ratio" graph. A random walk has a flat line. An upward sloping line means positive serial correlation -- high growth this year is likely to be followed by high growth next year. A downward sloping line means negative serial correlation. The variance ratio is particularly good at detecting long-run unstructured mean reversion.

You knew that filtering would lead to spurious positive serial correlation in consumption growth. How much? All of it!

The random walk in consumption (going back to Bob Hall's beautiful paper) is a very nice intuitive result. If you know you're going to be better off in the future, go out to dinner now. Consumption should be like stock prices.

It matters particularly now, in the context of the "long run risks" model, for a very prominent example

Banal Kiku and Yaron Long run risks. That whole model depends on the idea that long run risks are larger than short run risks, which they infer from the positive serial correlation of consumption growth. If consumption is a random walk, long run risks collapse to power utility. (More in a recent review.)

(To be fair, this criticism addresses the univariate properties of consumption. It is possible for a series to be a random walk in its univariate representation, but forecastable by other variables. Stock returns themselves are a great example, a nearly perfect univariate uncorrelated process, but forecastable by price-dividend ratios. So, the next round of "long run risks" may well find long run consumption growth forecastability from other variables, like P/E ratios.)

Thoughts

Why do I like these papers so much? I guess in part, they confirm my priors. One has to be honest. But that is a terrible reason to like and blog about papers. The blogosphere is full of "studies show that" whatever point one wants to flog today.

I like them because I think they're well done, and make the case convincingly.

Most of all, I like them because they show how after long and patient work, involving taking data really seriously, phenomena that seem like "puzzles," needing to be addressed by new and inventive theories, really are not puzzles, and explainable by simple economics.

This is "normal science" at its best. Looking back on the history of science, over and over, observations seemed not to fit good theories, and resulted in hundreds of new and creative "explanations." Once in a great while those puzzles result in dramatically new theories, which we celebrate. But far more often, after decades, and centuries at times, dogged persistent work showed how indeed things work as you think they might, and the original simple theory was right after all. The "rejections" of the consumption based model started around 1980. It took a long time to see the glass is not completely empty.

Everyone wants to be the "paradigm shifter," and the journals have about 10 new theories in every issue. Of which 9.99 are soon forgotten.

Part of my psychological makeup, part of what attracted me to economics all along, are the far more frequent cases in which dogged work shows how supply and demand indeed explain all sorts of puzzles.

I like "normal science." And I think we should celebrate it more.

22 Jul 2020

WalBank - Barokong

Arnold Kling's Askblog quotes Robert J. Mann

Wal-Mart’s application to form a bank ignited controversy among disparate groups, ranging from union backers to realtor’s groups to charitable organizations. The dominant voice, though, was that of independent bankers complaining that the big-box retailer would drive them out of business. Wal-Mart denied any interest in competing with local banks by opening branches, claiming that it was interested only in payments processing. Distrusting Wal-Mart, the independent bankers urged the FDIC to deny Wal-Mart’s request and lobbied state and federal lawmakers to block Wal-Mart’s plans through legislation. Ultimately, WalMart withdrew its application, concluding that it stood little chance of overcoming the opposition.
Mann also writes

... I argue that permitting Wal-Mart to have a bank would have a salutary effect on the relatively uncompetitive market for payment networks. The dominant position of Visa and MasterCard, in which payments are priced above cost to subsidize credit, inevitably will give way to a world in which payment services are priced at cost, or even below cost as a loss-leader to attract customers to other goods and services.
As the first quote shows, Walmart was only trying to process payments more efficiently -- because it already saw the chance to offer banking services, lend, and other banking functions would be blocked.

Arnold also points to this by Lawrence J. White.

Arnold sums up,

We are always told that we need regulation to protect consumers and make the financial system safer. That is the theory. The practice is that regulation very often gets used to limit competition.
Many people in the US still do not have regular bank accounts, and perhaps wisely so as banks notoriously suck money from poor people with pesky fees. Yet cashing a social security check remains a problem. Imagine small town America in which Walmart also offers banking services.

If it's not obvious, Walmart banks would be much safer than traditional banks. A bank tied to a huge retailer would not be financed by astronomical leverage, and if the bank lost money the equity holders of Walmart would pick up the losses.

Walmart has also faced a lot of resistance and restrictions in opening clinics. Imagine small town America in which simple, cheap Walmart clinics can offer a much wider range of services.

It's worth remembering how much opposition Walmart already overcame. It was the Uber of its day. A&P, its predecessor, was widely opposed, as was Walmart. Walmart still faces union opposition -- as I left it was still blocked from operating in the city of Chicago. Imagine the south side of Chicago populated with Walmarts, Walclinics and Walbanks! Thank its legislators and regulators for protecting its citizens from that nightmare.

Update:

An excellent blog post by Larry White on Walmart's troubles in starting a bank. A primary obstacle is the rule that bank holding companies can't be engaged in "commerce." Larry also points out just how much the other banks use this to keep out competition.

the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 placed a three-year moratorium on the granting of deposit insurance to any new (or newly acquired) ILC. Although the moratorium expired in 2013, bank regulators appear to have “gotten the message” that the commerce-finance barrier should remain intact.

16 Jul 2020

Index funds and voting shares - Barokong

Todd Henderson and Dorothy Shapiro Lund have an interesting OpEd in the Wall Street Journal, "Index funds are great for investors, risky for corporate governance." In brief, index funds don't participate heavily in monitoring companies, finding information about companies, or corporate control contests.

This point echoes larger complaints that with the spread of index funds there won't be enough active money to make markets efficient, and especially to make efficient the market for corporate control. One of the most important functions of a public market is, if you think that a company is mismanaged, you can buy up a lot of shares, vote out the management, and run it better. This is an imperfect system, to be sure, but note how many nonprofits (universities) and privately held companies, immune from this pressure, are run even more inefficiently than public companies.

Todd and Dorothy, law professors, after very nicely reviewing how funds currently deal with voting issues, seem to favor more law.

So how can the law ensure that these institutions make informed decisions about corporate governance? ... The first is to encourage them to rely on third-party corporate governance experts. It may be necessary... for the law to create incentives for institutional investors ...option three: encouraging passive institutional investors to abstain from voting altogether.
Hmmm. When "the law," not a person or people, is the subject of a sentence, I get cautious. When the law wants "to encourage" people, my hackles rise.  The law "encourages" and "creates incentives" pretty bluntly. One example, though discarded, is a bit chilling,

This could be accomplished by providing a legal cause of action to shareholders that are harmed by uninformed or conflicted voting decisions. But this would be a blunt tool for curbing abuse.
Indeed it would.

But this is forgiveable. They are lawyers, so more law is the answer. We are economists, and law a necessary evil when contracts and markets fail. Is there not an economic solution, a Coasean way to slice the knot?

I think so. Companies should issue, and index funds should want to buy, non-voting shares.  Non-voting shares seem to be regarded as a little infamy of internet companies, used to keep control in the hands of founders. But a split between voting and non-voting shares seems ideally suited to a mass of indexing investors, and a few active, information-based traders and active corporate control investors. In this vision, most of those voting shares are in public hands, unlike the internet companies.  In fact, most corporate stock grants and options to insiders should be in the form of non-voting shares.

Non-voting shares are treated exactly the same for all cash flow purposes. They receive the same dividends, same rights in repurchase, same treatment in any reorganization. They just do not allow the right to vote.

Since index funds don't value the option to vote, they should want non-voting shares.

Would such shares trade at a discount? Yes, likely so. And that's a benefit, not a cost, a feature not a bug. Index funds could buy the same cash flow, which is what they want, cheaper, by giving up the value of their votes, which they're not interested in. Buying the same cashflow cheaper gives you a better return.

Todd  and Dorothy actually advocate a form of this idea, that the index funds voluntarily refuse to vote.  But then the index funds pay the cost of an option they do not use. By purchasing non-voting shares they do the same thing, and reap a financial reward.

This separation between voting and non-voting shares would make the market for corporate control more efficient. It is easier for someone who wants to buy the voting rights to buy them from other active investors than from passive mutual funds. It also separates the stock market price into guesses about cash flows and guesses about corporate control events. As a long-term investor I'm interested in the former and less in the latter.

Non-voting shares become a sort of state-contingent long term debt. Rather than guarantee payment by its fixed value, as in debt, payment is guaranteed by its equality with whatever other shareholders are paid, and similar rights in court as debt-holders have to enforce their right to be paid ahead of voting shareholders.

I've asked a few of my corporate finance colleagues about this idea, and their general reaction is that it won't work, because sooner or later the investors with voting shares find ways to screw the non-voting shares out of money, not just out of votes. The ability to vote is the ultimate guarantor of payment.

I'm still not totally convinced.  (I admit I did not follow all of the shenanigans they suggested to accomplish stealing money from voting shares.) If we're bringing in law here, and if we're designing a security, it seems not impossible to create a class of non-voting shares whose equal treatment in all cashflow related events is the same as those of voting shares, and who have strong rights to sue to guarantee those rights. Long-term debt works, after all, as the voting shares don't find a way to escape interest and principal payments. The contract design for that right seems easier than the legal means to "encourage" behavior that Todd and Dorothy imagine.

Update: See Todd and Dororthy's response and more discussion.

15 Jul 2020

Non-voting shares response - Barokong

Todd Henderson and Dorothy Shapiro wrote me a thoughtful response to my post on non-voting shares. Todd and Dorothy:

Response to Cochrane

We are grateful for Cochrane’s thoughtful response to our op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. Space limitations prevent us from giving the necessary treatment to our ideas, but he is right to push us to be careful in our analysis, no matter the limits. We look forward to addressing his concerns and others in a forthcoming article.

In the meantime, here is a quick response to the thrust of Cochrane’s critique.

There is a logical inconsistency in Cochrane’s post—his “modest proposal” would require more legal change to accomplish than ours. (And we are the ones with a vested interest in more law!) For one, it’s not clear that companies would willingly issue non-voting stock in addition to voting stock (and in the right amounts)—this occurs very rarely in practice, if ever.

Second, even if the shares existed, Cochrane assumes that index funds would willingly buy them, although there’s no evidence to suggest that this would occur.

The hostile reaction from large passive institutional investors, including BlackRock and Vanguard, to the Snapchat IPO and other recent dual class stock offerings make it clear that passive funds wouldn’t buy non-voting stock willingly—institutional investors participated in those offerings under protest and have since been advocating for reforms that would prevent future non-voting offerings, even going so far as to lobby Russel FTSE to delist companies that have dual class shares.

It’s also unlikely that non-voting stock would be much cheaper than voting stock—empirical evidence has demonstrated that often, non-voting stock doesn’t trade at any discount to voting stock (such as when there's a controlling shareholder or the company is well run).

Even if passive funds could purchase non-voting shares at a small discount, it’s not obvious that they would have any incentive to do so. Index funds have the sole goal of replicating the performance of an index. Why would they want to get a different product for a lower price? This is especially true when doing so would cause them to give up power and influence over some of the companies that they invest in (for a small benefit that investors are unlikely to recognize).

So, under Cochrane’s proposal, the law would have to not only require companies to issue non-voting shares, it would also need to require index funds to buy them. Talk about a lot of law! (Read: coercion.) Not only would this be a more dramatic change than the one that we propose, it would surely lead to a worse world. As an example, there could be liquidity concerns—if passive funds wanted to sell en masse (as can happen when funds are tracking the same index), there would be no buyers. And, if passive funds instead wanted to buy, there would be no sellers (and in this situation, it's unlikely that the non-voting shares would really trade at a discount).

By contrast, our solution--encouraging (but not requiring) passive funds to abstain from voting—is much less intrusive. Rather than mandating the creation of a new market of non-voting shares, we advocate a voluntary legal change that would permit natural correctives to any corner solution. The concern seems to be that if index funds abstain, too much power will be vested in the hands of activists, not all of whom will be interested in long-term shareholder value. But if index funds are merely encouraged to abstain unless they have no strong interest in the outcome, then there is a natural, market-based corrective to this problem. If activists go overboard, then index funds will have a strong interest, and reenter the voting market at that time. In a sense, Cochrane’s critique is ironic: we are calling for less law. We want law to get out of the way, by letting index funds act naturally—to not vote when they have no interest in doing so, and where they have no comparative advantage in the process. (Our other alternative, a legal duty to vote in an informed matter, and not just blindly follow ISS and other proxy advisors, is a clear second best.)

***

A little response-response clarification:

I do not envision any coercion!  So I  deny "under Cochrane’s proposal, the law would have to not only require companies to issue non-voting shares, it would also need to require index funds to buy them."

Index funds need to wake up and ask for non-voting shares, and then companies will issue them. The funds get a discount and absolution from legal trouble. Or companies need to wake up and offer non-voting shares to index funds. The companies get a new source of financing.

The non-voting shares I have in mind need do need a lot of smart lawyering and contract writing by people like Todd and Dorothy.  I accept the point that current non-voting shares are not as protected as they should be, that the promise ``you get exactly as much money as the voting shares, and you can sue as bondholders do if you don't'' needs teeth.

Indeed, the market is hostile to non-voting shares because current non-voting shares are designed to concentrate control with insiders, not to create a vibrant outside market for corporate control. That's the last thing insiders want, and a reason that companies will be slow to offer such shares unless funds start demanding them.

Sometimes the world hasn't arrived by itself at the optimum, just because nobody thought of it, not because there is a market failure, and not because law has not compelled it. We live in a time of legal and financial innovation, not just gadget innovation.

And index funds not voting aggressively is not a screaming problem that can't take some time to sort out.

(How to start a fight in a libertarian bar -- "You're advocating government intervention! No, you're advocating government intervention! I probably should have left that out of the original, and there is not much need to spend time on it in further discussion. Laws and contracts and courts are all on the menu at the libertarian bar.)

***

Update:

This is a good point. Perhaps we just need some good intermediation/financial engineering for index funds to routinely lend out their shares around votes.

Update 2 here

More non-voting shares - Barokong

Tim Kroencke at the University of Basel wrote a nice follow up on non-voting shares (previous posts here and here) , which I share with permission. Some of the controversy was whether companies would issue shares and whether investors would by them. It turns out, yes, and he sends a gorgeous example in which control rights and cash flow rights are priced differently and react to different events:

....

In Germany, it is quite common for large companies to issue voting shares (Stammaktien) and non-voting shares (Vorzugsaktien) and one can make nice case studies. Here is one I did a while ago,  that I have updated today, and I want to share with you:

In 2005, Porsche started to buy Volkswagen shares. In 2008, it became obvious that Porsche tried to overtake Volkswagen and the price of voting shares, and only the voting shares, skyrocked. Volkswagen became the world’s biggest company…  well, for a couple of days.

Some figures to give perspective: first, the share price of non-voting vs voting Volkswagen shares traded in Frankfurt:

The dividend yield:

And here is how prices and yields add up to total returns:

Some observations:

First, the voting component of a share price can diverge substantially from its cash-flow related value. What is small most of the time does not need to be small all of the time. This should really worry any passive investor who simply wants to earn a factor premium. The typical broad index investor wants to earn the market premium. I really doubt that such an investor wants to be involved in the house of cards of the Wiedekings and Piëchs. There is a reason for hedge fund investors being around.

Second, voting and non-voting shares nicely move together - in the long-run. After all, they pay out a very similar cash-flow stream, as you write and as one would expect if the law is set up in a sensible way.

Third, non-voting shares outperformed the voting shares by roughly 100% over 18 years. This is the long-run picture, difference in cumulated returns come from differences in dividend yields. Cumulated over time, the premium for voting can be quite big!  Sure, this does not have to be the case in general. (For example, in 2011, die dividend yield of voting shares was slightly higher.) After all, we are looking at a failed takeover and this is just an example. However, I think one can safely make the point that non-voting shares are likely to better track the value of the cash-flow value of a company and are indeed well-suited for passive long-run investors.

Comment:

I was initially puzzled by the rate of return difference. If you start and end at the same price, but pay the same dividend, how do you achieve a different return? I think the answer is reinvestment. Dividends paid to the voting shares during the spike are reinvested at a time of terribly high prices, and so lose.

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